Why has Putin's "military campaign" ruse failed?

Why has Putin’s “military campaign” ruse failed?

When Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022, he had not anticipated such a strong response from countries uniting in defence. The EU & US cut off certain Russian banks from the SWIFT network (which allows financial payments and transactions between banks worldwide) triggering the 2022 Russian financial crisis. They also froze the RCB’s (Russian Central Bank’s) foreign-exchange reserves which held close to $650bn, as well as targeting and going after Oligarchs’ possessions. These included the ownership of “Chelsea FC” (Premier League football club), formerly owned by Abramovich (a Russian Oligarch), being transferred to Todd Boehly and the price paid by the new owner (£4.25bn) was given to provide relief in Ukraine. A $200m (£163m) superyacht owned by Viktor Medvedchuk, an oligarch and friend of Vladimir Putin, was transferred to the Ukrainian Asset Recovery and Management Agency, and these actions were designed to rub salt in Putin's already gaping wound.

However, Putin still had one card left to play, that of natural gas. The 2022-23 winter, one which was predicted to be the coldest in the past three decades, gave Putin his biggest bargaining chip yet. Putin’s plan was to prevent the EU and US imposing further sanctions in order to avert their civilians from going cold. Gazprom, Russia's biggest natural gas company, shut off all gas supplies from Nord Stream 1 (to Europe) on August 31st 2022, with the aim of convincing the European Union and the United States from dropping the $1trn of economic sanctions which had been imposed. For Putin, this plan could not possibly have backfired in a more humiliating way. The 2022-23 winter, contrary to predictions, turned out to be a particularly mild one, therefore resulting in a significant drop in the price of fossil fuels worldwide. Natural gas which was priced at 9.71 USD/MMBtu in July 2022 only cost 3.80 USD/MMBtu in January 2023, which additionally removed a vital source of revenue to fuel Russia’s war effort.

Finally, Putin thoroughly underestimated the power and sheer determination of the Ukrainian army, and the military support which the Ukrainians would receive from the West. The Russian autocrat stated that his forces could take Kiev in 2 days, and in the past two and a half years, the closest the aggressors were to the capital’s city-centre was 31 km away. Unsurprisingly, after having witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian army felt the urge to prevent the entire country from succumbing to the same fate. The United States has been the largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine, having committed a grand total of $175.5bn since the beginning of the conflict, with an aid package passed through Congress in April 2024. This financial and military aid has provided an incredible amount of much needed support to Ukraine, making its survival seem more assured against all odds.

Article Writer - LexaNews Journalist